Election Day prediction
November 8, 2016
Filed under Opinion
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As Americans head to the polls today for one of the biggest and most talked up elections in history, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are sitting in New York, hoping that after going to so many events in swing states around the country that the hard work will pay off in their favor.
Currently, national polls show Secretary Clinton with about a four point lead, a jump from earlier last week when the FBI came out with a statement that e-mails on the laptop of Anthony Weiner and Huma Abedin may relate to the FBI’s previous investigation of Clinton’s e-mails. Fortunately for Clinton, this has already been disproven by the FBI, as they announced there was no new harmful information in the emails.
Although Clinton has a four point lead nationally, it is not the popular vote that gets the president elected, but rather the electoral college. (Just ask Al Gore). In order to win, the candidate must receive 270 electoral college votes in order to get an electoral majority. This means that several swing states will decide tonight’s election, so it is best to examine those and what the polls in those states say.
Right off the bat, Hillary Clinton has a distinct favor in the electoral college. Since 2000, democrats have always won states that add up to 242 electoral votes, just 28 electoral votes from the 270 mark. (The swing state of Florida has 29).
In 2012, president Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by four points nationally, but 332-206 in the electoral college. Now, I predict that Donald Trump will do better than Romney did, but he is going to have to find some major states to upset Clinton in that went for Obama in 2012 and have been going for democrats for 20+ years.
With recent polling and demographic trends, it is clear that Trump has an advantage in two Obama 2012 states, those being Ohio and Iowa. Recent polling shows Trump ahead by an average of 5 points in both states, and the momentum seems to be going Trump’s way. That gives him 24 more electoral votes.
Of all the states that went Romney in 2012, North Carolina is going to be the toughest for Donald Trump to hang on to. Polling in that state show a virtual tie, but demographic trends and early voting marks lean towards Clinton. Another Romney state Trump might have to worry about is Arizona, but polling there shows a likely Trump victory even with the Clinton campaign making quite a push in the western state.
The most important state of all is Florida, and polling there shows a virtual tie there as well. A major question in both this state and North Carolina is whether minorities will turn out to vote, something key to a Clinton victory.
Trump has challenged in some western states such as Colorado and Nevada, but both of those states are ever so slightly turning towards Clinton, allowing her to clinch two important Obama 2012 states that add up to 15 electoral votes.
I also predict that Trump will win Maine’s 2nd congressional district, which is only one electoral vote. Maine is one of two states that splits their voting by congressional districts (the other is Nebraska).
Ultimately, if it plays out like I think, the five closest states will be North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Hampshire. If everything else plays out as I think before these states have their electoral votes counted, then Hillary Clinton will have 238 electoral votes and Donald Trump will have 216. I believe Trump is going to be able to hold on to the state of North Carolina and will also win Florida, but Hillary Clinton is going to win New Hampshire and ride big turnout in the big cities and suburban areas of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Detroit to win the critical states of Pennsylvania and Michigan. Ultimately after tomorrow night, the electoral college will be in favor of Hillary Clinton, 278-260.
278-260. For Trump and his supporters, so close, but yet so far.